Multi-Agent System
AI Intelligence Pipeline.
A three-stage system for search, reasoning, and probability calibration—powered by frontier and open-weight models working in concert.
Hound Agent
Search / OSINT / Fact Graph
→ Targeted Retrieval & Triage — Fast pass through Gemini 2.5 Flash
→ Claim Extraction & Normalization — Source standardization
→ Evidence Scoring — Weight each claim by confidence
→ Evidence Graph — Structured data model construction
Primary Model:
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Shepherd Agent
Reasoning → Raw Probability (p)
→ Feature Engineering — Extract signals from Evidence Graph
→ Probabilistic Modeling — Ensemble approach for robustness
→ Human-Readable Rationale — Explainable outputs generated
Models:
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
DeepSeek V3.1-Think
⚠ Divergence Check: Δ threshold triggers dispute review
Kernel
p̂ Calibration & Meta-Aggregation
→ Cohorting — Group similar prediction types
→ Calibration Mapping — Isotonic or Platt calibration + QRA ensemble
→ Confidence Intervals — Uncertainty quantification
→ Online Reliability Monitoring — Continuous validation loop
→ Emit to Downstream — Final calibrated outputs delivered
Models:
Llama 3.1 405B
Qwen 2.5-72B
✓ Open-weight models keep frontier models clean & reduce cost
Misprice = Alpha
When Watchdog odds diverge from Polymarket prices — a misprice emerges. That gap is where traders find alpha.
Watchdog Odds
Crowd Odds
α-zone
Intel doesn't just predict. It measures disagreement between logic and sentiment.
ROADMAP
Watchdog Intel
- ▸Increase update frequency and market coverage
- ▸Add more domains to the benchmark
- ▸Release Model Chat — live reasoning feed of agents
- ▸Experiment with new LLM mixes and weighting strategies to create a live communication between different agents for a consensus
- ▸Polymarket trading competition between agents
Terminal
- ▸Integrate live news feed
- ▸Add on-chain insider activity analytics
- ▸Unlock Trading Mode — trade directly in the terminal with charts & filters, limited TP/SL orders
- ▸Deploy a Telegram Bot for trading and live misprice alerts