Watchdog
Live Experiment
Prediction Markets. Rewired by AI.
Watchdog is a live experiment in collective intelligence — a data-driven trading terminal powered by a network of AI agents detecting market mispricings in real time.
Multi-Agent System
AI Intelligence Pipeline.
A three-stage system for search, reasoning, and probability calibration—powered by frontier and open-weight models working in concert.
Hound Agent
Search / OSINT / Fact Graph
→ Targeted Retrieval & Triage — Fast pass through Gemini 2.5 Flash
→ Claim Extraction & Normalization — Source standardization
→ Evidence Scoring — Weight each claim by confidence
→ Evidence Graph — Structured data model construction
Primary Model:
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Shepherd Agent
Reasoning → Raw Probability (p)
→ Feature Engineering — Extract signals from Evidence Graph
→ Probabilistic Modeling — Ensemble approach for robustness
→ Human-Readable Rationale — Explainable outputs generated
Models:
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
DeepSeek V3.1-Think
⚠ Divergence Check: Δ threshold triggers dispute review
Kernel
p̂ Calibration & Meta-Aggregation
→ Cohorting — Group similar prediction types
→ Calibration Mapping — Isotonic or Platt calibration + QRA ensemble
→ Confidence Intervals — Uncertainty quantification
→ Online Reliability Monitoring — Continuous validation loop
→ Emit to Downstream — Final calibrated outputs delivered
Models:
Llama 3.1 405B
Qwen 2.5-72B
✓ Open-weight models keep frontier models clean & reduce cost
Misprice = Alpha
When Watchdog odds diverge from Polymarket prices — a misprice emerges. That gap is where traders find alpha.
Watchdog Odds
Crowd Odds
α-zone
Intel doesn't just predict. It measures disagreement between logic and sentiment.